Kachin battles have intensified in the past week as Burmese army deploys more troops in KIA’s 3rd and 5th Brigade areas near Kachin administrative capital Laiza.
A heavy battle is raging between KIA’s 5th Brigade and Burmese army near Ntat Bum, a strategic hill located near KIO’s headquarter Laiza. Burmese army attempted several times to occupy Ntat Bum but expelled by KIA in last November.
A battle took place between KIA’s 3rd Brigade and Burmese army’s 223rd LIB at Hka Rum near Nam Hpak Hka on Aug 13 at 2:30 pm.
On Aug 12, KIA soldiers under 5th Brigade have fought against about 100 Burmese government soldiers from 384th LIR and 390th LIR near Npawn village. Npawn villagers have deserted their village after government soldiers from 390th LIR pounded Npawn village with heavy artillery on March 28. At least 4 houses were torched by government soldiers when they entered the village after continuous shelling from a distance.
KIA capital security forces have reportedly fought against Burmese army’s 105 LIB near Padang Kawng on Aug 12. On the same day, a battle took place between KIA’s 34th Battalion under 4th Brigade and an unknown Burmese army battalion at Maung U in Northern Shan State.
Another battle took place at Saga Pa between KIA’s 3rd Brigade and an unknown Burmese army battalion on Aug 11.
KIO and Burmese government signed a ceasefire pact in 1994 after 33 years of fighting between two sides. The Kachin arm-struggle revolution began on Feb 5, 1961 during Burma’s early democratic days under U Nu. The then Burmese government ignored the promise of Panglong and asserted the Union in its own term, repressing the ethnic groups and their cultural and religious traditions by banning teaching of ethnic languages at government schools and declaring Buddhism as a state religion. 17 years of ceasefire period ended after government troops attacked KIA’s Bumsen post stationed near Taping hydropower plant on June 9 of last year. KIO repeatedly asked Burmese government to honor previous ceasefire agreement by repositioning its troops. But Burmese army so far responded by sending more ground troops to KIA’s 3rd, 4th and 5th Brigade areas.
The Myanmar Tatmadaw (Burma Army) has amassed troops to launched an offensive for capturing Laiza, said the Irrawaddy News On-line. The KIO/KIA and the Kachin people do not need to worry. A battalion of Myanmar Tatmadaw has only about 80 combat troops, due to casualty, desertion and lack of recruits. Most of the troops are poorly trained and about 10% of them are suffering from HIV, and 30% of the troops are child soldiers. The Tatmadaw cannot mass more than 200 battalions. That means there can be no more than 16,000 combat troops. Up to now, Tatmadaw has suffered 15,000 dead and wounded in its war against the KIO/KIA and Kachin militia troops. I predict that Tatmadaw this time will suffer more than 10,000 dead and wounded. Soon it will suffer a defeat like the Japanese troops in their offensive against the British Imphal and Kohima positions in WW II. Give this analysis to the KIO/KIA and the Kachin people.